A wake-up call from the IMF
(Source thehill.com) Anyone who thinks that the United States and world economies are well on the road to recovery from the worst economic recession in the past 90 years has not read the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook update. It is not simply that the IMF is offering us the most sober of baseline world economic forecasts. It is also that the IMF is pointing to potential downside risks that it believes could take a severe toll on global economic activity. More ominously yet, it is warning that in the event that those downside risks were to materialize, the resulting downturn could be amplified by world financial market turmoil and by an intensification of trade restrictions. As depressing as the IMF’s baseline economic forecast is, what makes it even more sobering is that the IMF identifies several risks that, if realized, would make for a very much darker economic picture than it is now currently painting. These include a second wave in the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market debt difficulties, trouble in the global financial markets and an intensification in world trade restrictions.